Expert Strategy for Double Down Stud

Double Down Stud machines, which we first noticed in the boonies of Colorado, are starting to show up in many places around town, so we ran off some numbers to guide you to expert play on them.

The game, whether in its table-game or video format is quite simple. For the initial wager, the player gets 4 cards up and one down. The player may elect to double the wager before the fifth card is turned over. Since the player may have a winning hand even without the fifth card, the player may at times be doubling up on a sure winner.

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With only four cards dealt face up, there are 270,725 possible (pre-look) hands, with distribution and Expected Values as follows:

Strategy/Frequency Table

Type Of Hand	Number	EV(*)	Double?	Coin IN:	Coin OUT
4 of a Kind	13	50	YES	26	1300
4 Cd. Royal(O)	4	48.3	YES	8	346
4 Cd Royal(I)	16	44	YES	32	1,408
4 Cd. St.Fl(O)	32	10.66	YES	64	683
4 Cd St.Fl(I)	112	6.2	YES	224	1,388
3 of a Kind	2,496	5.46	YES	4,992	27,256
Two Pairs	2,808	3.75	YES	5,616	21,060
High Pair	25,344	2.21	YES	50,688	111,935
4 Cd Flush	2,704	1.95	YES	5,408	10,750
Mid-Pair	31,680	1.375	YES	63,360	87,120
4 Cd Straight	2,268	1.22	YES	4,536	5,544
4 Cd Ins. St	8,064	0.742	NO	8,064	5,983
Low Pair	25,344	0.54	NO	25,344	13,686
3 High Cards	7,812	0.4	NO	7,812	3,124
2 High Cards	53,172	0.312	NO	53,172	16,615
1 High Card	82,404	0.25	NO	82,404	20,601
RAZGU	26,452	0.094	NO	26,452	2,481
TOTALS	270,725			338,202	331,320
TOTAL RETURN: 331,320 / 338,202 = 97.97%

(*) The Expected Values (EV) given above do not include the doubling edge, but this is factored into the coin-in values.

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The hit frequency is 41%, being comprised of 23% instant (pre-look) winners plus 18% when the fifth card is turned over. Five out of six "peeks" fail to convert the losing hand to a winner and for the one in six that does, the result is usually a push or small award. This hardly spells excitement. When played as a table game, the players each get one up card and the flop is three up and one down.

Players have a slightly better chance due to their knowledge of what cards are already out of the deck. A bet on a four-flush is not good strategy if half of the missing suit cards are already in view. Ditto for the straights.

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Pay Table

Hand	Pay Table
Royal Flush	2000
Straight Flush	200
4 of a Kind	50
Full House	12
Flush	9
Straight	6
3 of a Kind	4
Two Pairs	3
Pair Jacks thru Aces	2
Pair 6's thru 10's	1

All Pays are Per Coin, Assuming 5 Coin Play

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