Expert Play
Password for Success in Video Poker
Long before we put our money in a Video Poker machine we should have a very good idea about how we can successfully play these very liberal machines. Like hang-gliding, it is best to study and get into condition rather than exposing ourselves to getting hurt.
The first step is to learn how we define an expert player and decide if we want to become one. Every expert player has a strong desire to play well, not only for the extra winnings which may result, which at best will be far short of a living wage, but primarily for the satisfaction derived from having mastered the challenge of playing well.
The expert player knows that there is a solid mathematical foundation underlying expert play. This makes the expert player discriminating in selecting what versions to play, what specific machines to play and how to play each hand dealt.
The expert player applies this knowledge to anticipate the way the game plays in terms of volatility, which defines the streaky hot and cold runs, the bankrolling requirements and finally, the most likely time to leave the machine.
With this background, we'll assume you are still with us because you want to be an expert player. So let's get into the subject of the mathematical basis of the game.
Now, don't get worried that we will be throwing a lot of math at you--we promise we won't.
Intuitively we can believe that all card games are analyzeable. In the sixties, Blackjack analysts were fairly accurate even though they had to approximate many of the outcomes. Digital computers caused
progress to accelerate and in the seventies virtually everyone agreed on the strategy and the resulting house edge for all versions.
Video Poker has gone through that cycle of revelation in a much shorter time even though it is just difficult to analyze. This happened for two reasons. First, better computers are available; second, a much more sophisticated approach was developed to arrive at the answers.
By comparison, in just 2 years we have learned that Video Poker strategy can be easily established in a practical form to within plus or minus .1%. Instead of the simulation of huge numbers of random hands, we use a 2-step process.
The key is to determine the Expected Value (EV) of a (pre-draw) hand. The EV is the average value of the hand if every possible draw is considered. As an example, in Jacks or Better, a Straight is paid 4-for-1 on
all machines. If dealt the hand:
We can see (even without a computer) that by discarding the Jack, we have 47 possible cards we might draw; 8 of these complete the straight and 39 are losers. This gives us an EV of 32/47 or .68; we would get the same EV for any 4-card straight which is open on both ends and has no high cards (Jack or higher in this version).
If we checked the EV of this hand played differently, we would find no other EV to be
as large.
Holding the Jack alone gives an EV of about .47 (but we need a computer here).
If we discard the six, the 47 draws would include 3 pairs of Jacks but only 4 straights. The EV would be found to be 19/47 or .40, making this the poorest possible play.
Thus, we play all such hands as a 4-card outside straight.
Now, back to the method of analysis:
First we set up a ranking table for that particular version of the game. In this table, all possible playable hands, i.e., better than complete throw-away-and-draw-five, are ranked by Expected Value (EV). Once this ranking table is completed, our computer deals out every combination of 5 cards (2,598,960 in all) and sorts each as the highest ranking hand it matches in the table. Its EV is accumulated along with that of every other hand; the sum is the total payouts.
As an illustration, in Jacks or Better, there are 35 kinds of playable hands. The best is the Natural Royal with its EV of 800 and 4 can be dealt out initially. The worst is the double inside straight flush with no high cards:
where we draw 2 to the spades. Is EV is .44 and our deck has 6,768 such hands. There are 84,360 non-playable hands each with an EV of .36. The grand total of EV's for all 36 kinds of hands on a full-pay Jacks or Better machine, played expertly, is 2,588,324--a 99.6% return.
As a by-product of this analysis, we also learn how many winning hands of each type will result. Note that in the determination of EV, we find the number of winning hands resulting from playing the hand in the way it has the highest EV. Our computer simply adds up all these hands as it goes through the cycle of dealing all the hands. Armed with this knowledge, players can better understand what the game is like and how to "play like an expert".