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Fair and balanced news and opinion commentary by Thomas Nephew. Can you hear me now?

Friday, March 12, 2004
 
Not sure if that's good news or bad news
Yigal Carmon, president of MEMRI (Middle East Media Research Institute), provides a full translation of the document claiming responsibility for the Madrid atrocities published by the "Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades of Al-Qa'ida." He concludes that it was not written by Al Qaeda leaders:
The text of this statement includes linguistic usages and concepts that are incompatible with or alien to authentic Al-Qa'ida writings by Osama bin Laden, Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri, and others. The following are some examples, in order of appearance:

  • Following the Qur'an verses is the title "The Trains of Death Operation." This is uncommon in bin Laden's writing. Also, it is noteworthy that the phrase "Trains of Death" is not reiterated in the text as the name of the operation.
  • "Settling old accounts," both as a linguistic form and as a concept, is alien to authentic Al-Qa'ida writings.
  • The use of the concept of "agents" is taken from the vocabulary of nationalist ideology, while bin Laden and his followers relate to their enemies primarily as infidels.
  • The phrase "but you did not get the message" is not one used by bin Laden, who does not cast his operations in the light of "messages," rather, as acts in and of themselves to further the goals of Al-Qa'ida for the sake of Allah. Thus, it follows that:
  • The concept of conditionality, as in the statement "And if you renounce [fighting us], we too will stop fighting you" is not a bin Laden concept.
  • The term "The Tyrant of the Generation" was used in the previous statement of alleged responsibility by the Abu Hafs Al-Masri Brigades, for the August 2003 U.S. blackout -- which was caused by a large-scale technical failure.
  • In authentic Al-Qa'ida writings, the September 11 attacks are not referred to as "events" but as "raids" (the early Islamic term ghazwah).
  • The announcement of an operation to begin at "4515 S.B." or reference to an operation that is "90% completed" is alien to bin Laden's scholarly Islamist style.

    Thus, this statement does not seem to be an authentic Al-Qa'ida document.
  • (Via PowerLine) That may merely mean these people are not under such direct control by Bin Laden that he writes the post-attack statement -- and that we're now in more of a free-lance phase of "Al Qaedoid" rather than "Al Qaeda" actions.

    Of course it may still turn out the Abu Hafs people are full of baloney, and that ETA or some other terror group was to blame. There's apparently no indication that ETA and Al Qaeda have worked together before; Al Qaeda people are reportedly unimpressed with ETA's methods. But there's a first time for everything.

    If we're in a post-Al Qaeda-proper phase, ad hoc and/or lesser groups might at least not be capable of the utter worst -- nuclear or large-scale biological attack. But even if that speculation bears out, it's no consolation to Madrid tonight.


    =====
    UPDATE, 5/29: In a report about the background to the Ashcroft-Mueller terror warnings on Wednesday (5/26), MSNBC reports that the Abu Hafs Al-Masri group is "known for putting propaganda on the Internet ... is not really taken seriously by Western intelligence ... does not appear to have any real field operational capability."
      

     
    This is not a Christian nation -- it's even better than that
    Brett Marston brings us the goods* on the Texas Republican Party's 2002 platform. The kicker:
    Christian Nation – The Republican Party of Texas reaffirms the United States of America is a Christian nation, which was founded on fundamental Judeo-Christian principles based on the Holy Bible.
    The United States of America is no such thing, you dangerous fools.

    There's plenty more -- on sex education (no condoms, just abstinence), on guns (the familiar "what first half of the 2d amendment?" ploy), on abortion clinic intimidation protests, etcetera, etcetera. And everywhere you look: God, as brought to you by the Christian Republican Party.

    Well, it's a free country. And I'm voting against this kind of politics, every time, for the foreseeable future.


    =====
    * Original link: TheocracyWatch
      

    Thursday, March 11, 2004
     
    Symbol Susan
    FOX News reports that one Ms. Susan Lindauer, from my home town of Takoma Park, has been arrested as an Iraqi "spy" -- a tendentious version of the true indictment, for "conspiracy to act as [an] unregistered agent of a foreign government" (Title 18, United States Code, Section 951).

    Ms. Lindauer's alias among investigators was "Symbol Susan," and reading the indictment, I can't help but wonder whether that was a play on words for "Simple Susan." But as poorly as the story reflects on Ms. Lindauer, it doesn't exactly wrap the FBI in glory, either.

    The ex-Congressional staffer apparently accepted cash from Iraqi intelligence services in return for ... it's not exactly clear. She traveled to Iraq before the war, took some money from some Iraqi intelligence officers, then came back. The whole thing culminated with Ms. Lindauer trying to deliver some documents to a U.S. official -- reportedly White House chief of staff Andrew Card, a distant relative -- on January 8, 2003.

    So far, so kooky. But then came the war, and a 6 month hiatus in Ms. Lindauer's 'crime spree.' Then things took an entirely different turn. From the U.S. vs. Lindauer indictment (PDF file):
    o. On or about June 23, 2003, SUSAN LINDAUER, a/k/a “Symbol SUSAN,” met in Baltimore, Maryland, with a special agent of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”) acting in an undercover capacity as a member of the Libyan intelligence service seeking to support resistance groups in post-war Iraq (the “UC”), and discussed the need for plans and foreign resources to support these groups operating within Iraq.

    p. On or about July 17, 2003, SUSAN LINDAUER, a/k/a “Symbol SUSAN,” met in Baltimore, Maryland, with the UC and discussed the need for plans and foreign resources to support resistance groups operating within Iraq.

    q. On or about August 6, 2003, SUSAN LINDAUER, a/k/a “Symbol SUSAN,” pursuant to instructions received from the UC, left documents in a designated location in Takoma Park, Maryland.

    r. On or about August 21, 2003, SUSAN LINDAUER, a/k/a “Symbol SUSAN,” pursuant to instructions received from the UC, left documents in a designated location in Takoma Park, Maryland.

    s. From in or about June 2003, up to and including in or about February 2004, SUSAN LINDAUER, a/k/a “Symbol SUSAN,” regularly communicated via email with the UC. (Title 18, United States Code, Section 371.)
    (link, emphasis added)
    Ms. Lindauer's interactions with Iraqi agents were of course a thing of the past by late June of last year: Saddam's statue was down, Baghdad was secured... more or less. Assuming it happened as described, her particular attempts to serve as an interlocutor may well have been illegal, and would then merit some kind of punishment: a fine, probation, maybe jail time.

    But the case they had -- points (a) to (n) of the indictment -- apparently wasn't good enough for the FBI. So they set out to make it "better," by coaxing her into committing a far worse breach of faith with her country and her fellow citizens. If the story above is true, they succeeded, in which case: shame on her.

    But shame on the FBI as well. There's enough real trouble in the world without manufacturing more.


    =====
    UPDATE, 3/12 12:30AM: Jim Henley discusses the story. He's (rightly) tougher on Lindauer than I was, and reserves judgment on entrapment:
    My best guess is that, at the least, Lindauer crossed a line she shouldn't have crossed between opposing her country's foreign policy and advancing another's. It is an honorable thing to oppose an unwise or an unjust war - IF you do it of, by and for love of YOUR country. You don't take money from an evil regime, or even give its minions the time of day. (Imagine Lincoln accepting funding from Santa Ana.)

    It may be
    as true that the government took advantage of a weak woman's naivete in hopes of political gain.
    I suppose I've assumed that the FBI initiated the "UC" contact, but maybe not. Henley also links to an "Outside the Beltway" item chock full of links to Ms. Lindauer's rich and varied past.
      

     
    Madrid terror attack
    Washington Post: Madrid Explosions Kill at Least 173
    The attacks come three days before Spaniards go to the polls in national elections, and candidates for all the major parties immediately suspended campaigning.

    There was no public claim of responsibility for the bombings. But in statements, Spain's political leadership blamed ETA, the Basque separatist organization, which has waged a campaign of bombings and assassinations for decades in pursuit of independence for the Basque region of northeast Spain. ETA remains on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist organizations. [...]

    Some media speculated that the simultaneous nature of today's explosions was more the hallmark of al Qaeda, not ETA.
    With 600 wounded, some severely, the death toll is likely to rise. Madrid is a great city, a wonderful place. May all the wounded recover, may Madrid be safe once more, and may those who did this meet their just deserts, and soon.


    =====
    UPDATE, 1PM: It's a feeble gesture, no doubt, but here's where you can send an e-mail to the Spanish Embassy in Washington, D.C. Remember how it felt after 9/11 to get some sense of sympathy from the rest of the world; now pay it back a little bit.
      

    Wednesday, March 10, 2004
     
    The smell of victory?
    About a week ago, I wrote:
    But if this guy were interested in the V.P. slot -- I have no idea -- I'd be intrigued. It's not so far-fetched. It would be contesting the center -- heck, it could bypass "contesting" and proceed directly to taking a nice, great big bite. Dream with me, it could mean marginalizing the radical Republican Right, almost at a stroke. It might also be one hell of a ticket.
    I thought it unlikely because I thought McCain would reject it out of hand. But apparently I was wrong:
    "John Kerry is a close friend of mine. We have been friends for years," McCain said Wednesday when pressed to squelch speculation about a Kerry-McCain ticket. "Obviously I would entertain it."
    Like Gary Farber -- where I first read about this (as usual) -- I'd be thrilled to see this ticket "rocket to victory." McCain's chief drawback is being pro-life, but as Gary points out, even a President McCain couldn't undo Roe v. Wade by himself, and it's hard to imagine him applying a BushRovian pro-life litmus test to federal court nominations.

    The issue actually undid McCain a bit in New Hampshire four years ago, because he -- gasp -- didn't imagine automatically forcing his 15-year-old daughter to go through with bearing a child when answering a hypothetical question. McCain is fairly centrist in that he (at least) favors allowing abortion in cases of rape, incest, or to protect the life of the mother. And according to this report during the 2000 campaign, he has said that
    reversing Roe v. Wade now would force thousands of young women to have illegal and dangerous operations.
    Meanwhile, (again via G. Farber) witness the eruptions on the right. I imagine there are some eruptions on the left, too. On that score, I'd start any discussion with "You do want to actually win the election in November, right?"

    OK, now I see via CNN that McCain's office
    felt the need to quash the speculation several hours later, insisting he would not be a vice presidential candidate this year.
    That still sounds more like a "it'll never happen" than a "I would never do it" to me.


    ====
    UPDATE: The blogosphere reacts! Kevin Drum: "he's really conservative, and the fact that he has an occasional spat with George Bush doesn't really change that." Well, maybe "conservative" isn't what it used to be; see the "it's not so far-fetched" links above. But yes, Edwards is still a good alternative. Oliver Willis: "I still don't like the idea (if I was in the business of electing Republicans, I'd be a Republican)." Well, that's kind of how I felt about Wesley Clark, so I can understand that.
      

     
    Hubble Ultra Deep Field
    From the NASA/Hubble press release:
    Astronomers at the Space Telescope Science Institute today unveiled the deepest portrait of the visible universe ever achieved by humankind. Called the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF), the million-second-long exposure reveals the first galaxies to emerge from the so-called "dark ages," the time shortly after the big bang when the first stars reheated the cold, dark universe. The new image should offer new insights into what types of objects reheated the universe long ago. [...]

    The HUDF field contains an estimated 10,000 galaxies. In ground-based images, the patch of sky in which the galaxies reside (just one-tenth the diameter of the full Moon) is largely empty. Located in the constellation Fornax, the region is below the constellation Orion. [...]

    The ACS picture required a series of exposures taken over the course of 400 Hubble orbits around Earth. This is such a big chunk of the telescope's annual observing time that Institute Director Steven Beckwith used his own Director's Discretionary Time to provide the needed resources.

    The HUDF observations began Sept. 24, 2003 and continued through Jan. 16, 2004. The telescope's ACS camera, the size of a phone booth, captured ancient photons of light that began traversing the universe even before Earth existed. Photons of light from the very faintest objects arrived at a trickle of one photon per minute, compared with millions of photons per minute from nearer galaxies.

    Just like the previous HDFs, the new data are expected to galvanize the astronomical community and lead to dozens of research papers that will offer new insights into the birth and evolution of galaxies.
    (links, emphasis, underlining added)
    I don't get out under a night sky enough any more. But when I've been on a mountaintop at night in Yosemite or the Smokies, even what I could see with my own eyes was awesome. But this -- thousands upon thousands more unseen galaxies, billions upon billions more unseen stars -- it's overwhelming if I let myself think about it. Life, sights, maybe even civilizations sprinkled throughout. It would be nice to know more.

    As an unworthy aside: I'll miss the Hubble, if it's allowed to fall back to Earth. If there's one thing worth doing on the moon, it might be to set up observatories on the dark side to do astronomy like this on a grand scale.* (I don't think it makes much sense as a launching point to Mars: why climb out of two gravity wells instead of one?) In the meantime, I hope another space telescope is built and sent up soon to replace this one.


    =====
    * Proponents suggest a radio telescope array, and that such an observatory might not require human hands to build or maintain.
      

    Sunday, March 07, 2004
     
    You should have complained before you pressed the button
    I didn't experience any technical problems using the electronic voting system in Montgomery County, Maryland last Tuesday. But this guy did:
    During the voting process I scrolled through the five screens on the ballot, ticked my choices and pressed the fateful "cast my vote" box. As I walked out I saw a campaign sign for Barbara Mikulski and said to myself, "Hey, I didn't vote in the Senate race. In fact, I never saw that race on the screen." I went back in and raised this with several election judges and officials. All but one looked at me as if I were crazy and, in gentle terms, noted that I must have missed the race on the screen. [...]

    I persevered long enough to persuade the technician on duty to check my machine. The technician confirmed that the machine was not presenting whole election contests.

    At this point I demanded to vote again. But the senior election judge on site said, "Once you've pressed 'cast my vote,' that's it. You can't vote again." I pointed out that I had been denied the right to vote because I was never presented with the ballot for that race, and she said, "Well, you should have complained before you pressed the button." In other words, it's up to the voter to account for all the races and to make sure the machine doesn't malfunction. [...]

    The most amazing thing about this experience was something the administrator said to me. When I explained that a race had been dropped, she asked whether I had pressed the magnification button. I said that I had not even seen and fortunately did not need a magnification button. She said, "The reason I ask is that we know that this sometimes happens when you press the magnification button." So the election officials know that the machine will malfunction.
    (emphases added)
    -- from "Think you voted in Maryland? Think again," by Chevy Chase lawyer Jeffrey Liss in the Sunday Washington Post.

    I'm in the same county, so I saw the ballot Liss was supposed to see -- the Mikulski vote was on a back page, maybe page 4 of 5, along with some other elections. So it may not have just been Mikulski's primary election that was affected, but others on that page as well.

    As this online demo shows, the system -- yes, a Diebold "AccuVote TS"-- will attempt to display "offices not voted" (leave out a vote to see). But -- judging by Mr. Liss' experience -- this check may depend on a given page of election choices actually being presented to the voter in the first place. Or, of course, it may have failed independently of the failure to display the "Mikulski screen."

    Given the lack of any output to the voter, only his or her "elections technician" would know. At minimum, these electronic voting systems should provide paper receipts documenting to the voter what his/her votes were. Just as importantly, if a problem comes up, voters should be able to demand that election officials correct electronic voting machine glitches like the one Mr. Liss experienced on the spot. My last idea -- probably vaguely remembered from discussions of the issue by Southknoxbubba, Aziz Poonawalla, or others -- is that there should at least be audits of selected precincts, to provide some reassurance that electronic voting results are accurate.


    =====
    UPDATE, 3/8: Welcome Southknoxbubba (SKB) readers; I thought I'd get more specific about the SKB and Poonawalla discussions I mentioned above. In the SKB post I mentioned in my Tailgate Party review, Southknoxbubba makes the most practical short-term suggestion: just vote by absentee ballot. He also links to plenty of interesting background and election day reporting. Mr. Poonawalla also posted about the issue on Super Tuesday ("electronic voting: a paper trail proposal"). He proposes a paper receipt, an anonymous ID for each voter, and a public web site where votes are stored and universally accessible.
      

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