How to execute an innocent man
For great results, start with a large, Texas-shaped state, and add outdated arson investigation methods. The Chicago Tribune's Steve Mills and Maurice Possley report (in "Texas man executed on disproved forensics"; registration required):

Strapped to a gurney in Texas' death chamber earlier this year, just moments from his execution for setting a fire that killed his three daughters, Cameron Todd Willingham declared his innocence one last time.

"I am an innocent man, convicted of a crime I did not commit," Willingham said angrily. "I have been persecuted for 12 years for something I did not do."

He was probably telling the truth:

"There's nothing to suggest to any reasonable arson investigator that this was an arson fire," said Hurst, a Cambridge University-educated chemist who has investigated scores of fires in his career. "It was just a fire."

Ryland, chief of the Effie Fire Department and a former fire instructor at Louisiana State University, said that, in his workshop, he tried to re-create the conditions the original fire investigators described.

When he could not, he said, it "made me sick to think this guy was executed based on this investigation. ... They executed this guy and they've just got no idea--at least not scientifically--if he set the fire, or if the fire was even intentionally set."
(via Avedon Carol)

It turns out that a lot of things arson investigators used to believe were flat wrong, according to a second article by Maurice Possley. Basically, evidence once considered proof of "accelerants" (i.e., flammable fluids like gasoline or lighter fluid) really wasn't proof, so that many fires classified as arson were probably just accidents.

Better arson investigations could prevent tragedies like the Willingham execution. But there's an even better way to do that. posted by Thomas Nephew at 1:30:00 AM -- |  

 
I wouldn't work for Dow if I didn't believe in it
As is probably well known, an outfit called "The Yes Men" conned the BBC into believing one of them was a Dow Chemical spokesman on the 20th anniversary of the Bhopal chemical disaster last week. In a live segment of BBC World Service said spokesman announced that Dow would accept responsibility, pay out $12 billion, and work to extradite former Union Carbide CEO Warren Anderson to India. From "The Yes Men"s own account:

When it's over, the studio technician is happy about what she has heard. 'What a nice thing to announce,' she says.

'I wouldn't work for Dow if I didn't believe in it,' replies Andy matter-of-factly.

I wonder if even the extradition threat or that last statement ever set off any "wait a minute, that's odd" thoughts at the Beeb. A New York Times article (via Avedon Carol) suggests not:"He was incredibly plausible," a BBC executive said on condition of anonymity. Must be nice for the Times to report someone else's screwups now and then. posted by Thomas Nephew at 12:23:00 AM -- |  

 
Electrophoresis bed conversion
ABC News forwards an AP report that British philosopher and militant atheist Antony Flew has had a change of heart:

At age 81, after decades of insisting belief is a mistake, Antony Flew has concluded that some sort of intelligence or first cause must have created the universe.

It seems to me the common denominator between Flew then and now is a kind of intellectual arrogance. Just as the strong variety of atheism, for its part, makes the certain claim that God(/Allah/...) does not exist, which at the end of the day seems arrogant even to a skeptic like me, so does Flew now believe he's hit on the clinching counterargument :

A super-intelligence is the only good explanation for the origin of life and the complexity of nature, Flew said in a telephone interview from England.

Pretty certain of himself there; his career as a philosopher seems to have suddenly enabled judgments about biology and physics that have eluded specialists more familiar with those fields. For my part I'd say "intelligent design" is an explanation of the origin of life, not the only one -- nor a particularly persuasive one, but that's just me. Practicing Muslim and scientist Aziz Poonawalla remarks:

But what's more intriguing is to see him invoke belief buttressed by scientific evidence. As I've been wont to argue, proof denies faith. Not to say that a miracle on your doorstep wouldn't be valid empirical evidence, but rather that expecting to find conclusive rather than circumstantial evidence to rationally and rigorously deduce the existence of a Creator is misguided. Faith, by definition, lies outside the sphere of reason.

I agree with this. It's a kind of surprising common ground: God cannot be proven -- by definition. For believers, God must be taken on faith; for atheists, that's unacceptable to the point of believing the opposite. Now Flew is neither, but believes he's found proof God exists. I believe he's found nothing of the sort, but wish him well in his final years.

Maybe this concludes by going off on a tangent, but I'm reminded of a passage I came across in a review by James Wood of "Gilead," by Marilynne Robinson. The main character, 76-year old pastor John Ames,

...spends much time musing on the question of what heaven will be like. Surely, he thinks, it will be a changed place, yet one in which we can still remember our life on earth: "In eternity this world will be Troy, I believe, and all that has passed here will be the epic of the universe, the ballad they sing in the streets."

Whether eternity or posterity, that's what I think too. posted by Thomas Nephew at 5:35:00 PM -- |  

 
On fascism
Nicely put by Jim Henley:

Fascism doesn't just want 'the people' to shut up and do what you're told. Fascism wants 'the people' to get into it, to 'shut up and do what you're told' at the top of their lungs. Fascism is also about energizing the base against enemies, internal and/or external, and using the violence of the State to shut the labelled enemies the hell up. [...]

...[T]he Dixie Chick brouhaha is a useful example. The Dixie Chicks were not 'censored.' They were not arrested, denied work or killed by the government. But the freelance demonization campaign against them was nevertheless a fascist impulse in action.

He loses me elsewhere in the post, to be sure, by calling rescuing a kidnap victim "state violence," but I'm told not everyone agrees with me about that incident. posted by Thomas Nephew at 1:10:00 AM -- |  

 
Rings, shadows, moon

False color composite, courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech.

In a splendid portrait created by light and gravity, Saturn's lonely moon Mimas is seen against the cool, blue-streaked backdrop of Saturn's northern hemisphere. Delicate shadows cast by the rings arc gracefully across the planet, fading into darkness on Saturn's night side.

The image was photographed by the Cassini-Huygens probe en route to Saturn and Titan. (Via The Panda's Thumb) posted by Thomas Nephew at 1:00:00 PM -- |  

 
Dean at GWU
Howard Dean at George Washington University, December 8:

Let me tell you what my plan for this Party is:

We're going to win in Mississippi
...and Alabama
...and Idaho
...and South Carolina. [...]

We cannot be a Party that seeks the presidency by running an 18-state campaign. We cannot be a party that cedes a single state, a single District, a single precinct, nor should we cede a single voter. [...]

There is a Party of fiscal responsibility... economic responsibility.... social responsibility... civic responsibility... personal responsibility... and moral responsibility.

It's the Democratic Party.

posted by Thomas Nephew at 1:50:00 AM -- |  

 
Fire that man
(...or woman). The New York Times' Douglas Jehl reports:

A classified cable sent by the Central Intelligence Agency's station chief in Baghdad has warned that the situation in Iraq is deteriorating and may not rebound any time soon, according to government officials. [...]

[The cable] warned that the security situation was likely to get worse, including more violence and sectarian clashes, unless there were marked improvements soon on the part of the Iraqi government, in terms of its ability to assert authority and to build the economy.

Looks like no matter how hard Porter Goss tries, these malfunctioning CIA officials keep cropping up. It's not all bad -- Army generals may have the good sense to backpedal:

The American ambassador to Iraq, John D. Negroponte, was said by the officials to have filed a written dissent, objecting to one finding as too harsh, on the ground that the United States had made more progress than was described in combating the Iraqi insurgency. But the top American military commander in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., also reviewed the cable and initially offered no objections, the officials said. One official said, however, that General Casey may have voiced objections in recent days.

The leak threatens to undermine President Bush's analysis of a previous similar estimate that was leaked during the summer:

After news reports disclosed the existence of the National Intelligence Estimate, which also remains classified, President Bush initially dismissed the conclusions as nothing more than a guess. Since then, however, violence in Iraq has increased, including the recent formation of a Shiite militia intended to carry out attacks on Sunni militants.

The last thing we need is accurate forecasts undermining Presidential ones at this critical stage. It seems to me like the whole problem is that there are really too many American officials actually over in Iraq seeing things up close. With the technology available today, that's really not necessary: we can install roving robotcams to do the job more efficiently, or take it a step farther and produce AI programs that will produce suitable, instant, optimistic estimates of the situation on the ground in Iraq without even going there. As a matter of fact, we already have a few.

Bush not an originalist?
The same report quotes President Bush counseling patience with these interesting comments on democracy in America:

"The American people must understand that democracy just doesn't happen overnight," he said. "It is a process. It is an evolution. After all, look at our own history. We had great principles enunciated in our Declarations of Independence and our Constitution, yet, we had slavery for a hundred years. It takes a while for democracy to take hold. And this is a major first step in a society which enables people to express their beliefs and their opinions."

Slippery slope, my friend. Next thing you know, gay marriage, gun regulation, health care, and anarchy generally.

Of course, maybe what he's really saying is that we'd need to be in Iraq for a hundred years for democracy to take hold. Or that we're getting out of there before their Civil War. posted by Thomas Nephew at 11:30:00 PM -- |  

 
Strange attraction
I'm concerned. Fellow Rocky Topper Jim Pfaff seems to have an obsessive fascination with the junior Senator from New York:

TennCare Shows How Hillary-care Would Work (extra points for gruff Churchill quote)

Millions come from Arabs to Fund Clinton Library ("Hypocracy abounds"; "may have something to do with a possible presidential bid by Senator Clinton")

Hillary as Chief Justice? ("brings chills down the spine all by itself")

The most memorable example came after a widely believed hoax that Ms. Clinton had lamely tried to talk the evangelical talk at an Arkansas church. The Rocky Top Brigade (an association of Tennessee bloggers) was quickly treated to an e-mail link to Hillary the Christian Conservative and the knowing question, "Is Hillary planning on running for President? Naaaahhhhh!"

Now Jim is no different from millions of others in his faintly ridiculous obsession with the lurking lady of liberalism. But is politics all there is to it? What does 'faintly ridiculous obsession' usually tell you? When someone repeatedly lets complete strangers know by mass e-mailings about his fascination, might there be a deeper need -- for acknowledgment, for recognition ...for ...?

True, she's a Democrat -- she's married -- she doesn't even know he exists. Dammit, it's all so hopeless! No wonder he's angry! But who knows, maybe she's waiting for someone -- someone like him.

I see him like this, and I just want to help. So Jim, here's how to reach her. The minute you let her under your skin, then you begin to make it better. Maybe this way she'll finally be with you someday -- running those cool, liberal, 'health care' fingers down your spine... oooooohhh... posted by Thomas Nephew at 11:00:00 PM -- |  

 
Wal-Mart labor-market effects
Bruce Bartlett of the NCPA (National Center for Policy Analysis) takes issue with the Frontline piece "Is Wal-Mart good for America?" I mentioned a couple of weeks ago:

Acting as what economists call a monopsony, [Wal-Mart] supposedly forced countless American manufacturers to close their domestic operations and move to Asia in order to get their costs low enough for Wal-Mart to sell their products. It is also said to have caused innumerable local retailers to go out of business, further adding to the job loss. In fact, academic research by economist Emek Basker of the University of Missouri contradicts this last point, finding that Wal-Mart permanently raises local employment.

Bartlett is referring to Emek Basker's January 2004 article "Job Creation or Destruction? Labor-Market Effects of Wal-Mart Expansion." Cutting to the chase, Basker uses econometric methods to estimate that each new Wal-Mart nets its county about 50 retail jobs long-term, while losing about 20 "wholesale" jobs, and not affecting the county's manufacturing employment, for an overall net gain of 30 jobs. Via chainworker, a Financial Times article by Neil Buckley points out that Basker herself makes less sweeping claims about her study than Bartlett does:

But Ms Basker could not measure what happened to employment in neighbouring counties without a Wal-Mart. She is also careful not to claim her report proves Wal-Mart has benefits. "I don't know whether these jobs are part-time or full-time; I don't know what the impact on wages is," she says. "People who don't like Wal-Mart find a lot of reasons not to like Wal-Mart. I'm addressing one small issue."

(Point about "finding reasons" taken, by the way.) The quality of jobs won and lost -- both in pay and benefits -- is obviously a key issue that Basker forthrightly acknowledges isn't part of what she's studying, as is the right of employees to organize. But while it's been a long time since my econometrics classes, I think there are other issues with this study.

One begins with noting that Basker's data -- perhaps not surprisingly -- strongly overrepresent counties with Wal-Marts: of the 1749 counties she selects,* Wal-Mart eventually entered 75%, compared with 13% of the excluded counties. As far as I can tell, there's no estimate on the impact of a new Wal-Mart on the set of all counties not containing Wal-Marts -- surely part of the point the Frontline documentary was making. In other words, sure, Rural County, Oklahoma sees a modest job increase as Wal-Mart number 393 drops in and settles down. But if Factory County, Ohio sees a related job decline, and never gets a Wal-Mart, that effect is (I think) often invisible in Basker's data.

There's also no estimate of the aggregate effect of all Wal-Marts on jobs -- something that would increase across the 22-year time period (1977-1998) of Basker's data, as Wal-Mart achieves and strengthens "monopsony" power-buyer status (if that is indeed what happened). Put differently, I'm not sure the first 10 or 15 years of Basker's data tell me much about Wal-Mart's labor market effects during the year I'm really interested in -- this one. If Factory County -- now perhaps renamed Rust County -- finally gets a Wal-Mart in 1998 after losing manufacturing in the mid 80s or early 90s, it (a) may have fewer manufacturing, wholesale, or retail jobs to lose, and (b) that Wal-Mart might well be part of a company with very different effects on the rest of the country than Wal-Mart in 1977 had.

Like I say, my econometrics is rusty, so I simply may not have recognized how Basker succeeds in dealing with these issues, or they may not be as important as they seem to me. My guess is that this article may provide ammunition for, say, a county executive's decision to expedite a Wal-Mart building permit, since that executive has no obligation to consider his or her neighboring counties or the rest of the country. But I think Basker's findings have less bearing on the debate whether Wal-Mart is good for all of America.



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* Basker limits the data set to the 1749 counties with total employment in 1964 above 1500, positive employment growth between 1964 and 1977, and no Wal-Mart entry prior to 1977. She writes that she did this to try to avoid spurious positive Wal-Mart effects due simply to "Wal-Mart select[ing] counties whose growth rates exceed those of non-entered counties" (p. 9). posted by Thomas Nephew at 11:00:00 AM -- |