Action items: Filibuster, Eritrea, Torture
Filibuster -- People for the American Way (PFAW) has set up a cell phone alert system that will be triggered if Senate Majority Leader Frist decides to force the "nuclear option" ending the filibuster rule:

With the Nuclear Option’s timing in Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s hands, there won’t be enough warning to send out an email alert the moment he drops the bomb on the Senate. But we can deliver a text message straight to your mobile that embeds a Senate phone number based on your state.

Sign up! PFAW promises not to share your contact information, and to ask you to opt in to each subsequent text message alert. (via Josh Marshall, "Talking Points Memo")


Eritrean trade unionists -- Labourstart, a UK trade union organization, needs people to help blanket Eritrean embassies around the world with e-mails protesting the jailing of four Eritrean trade unionists by that country's repressive regime. It's having an effect:

Many of those messages have been re-sent by fax to Eritrean embassies around the world, prompting one official in the Oslo embassy to phone up LabourStart and demand that we stop sending them.

Send an e-mail! The link leads to a detailed account of the arrests, and a suggested e-mail message to send to Eritrean officials. (via eRobin, "fact-esque")


Torture investigation -- The ACLU is calling for Attorney General Gonzales to appoint an Independent Counsel to investigate of the abuse and torture at Abu Ghraib and elsewhere, and for the Bush administration to release all related documents:

Because Gonzales was involved in the development of the policies, Gonzales needs to commit to ensuring a full and fair investigation by agreeing to appoint an outside special counsel for torture and abuse investigations and prosecutions of civilians.

It is important that Gonzales agree to appoint an outside special counsel because an array of already-released documents clearly show that top government officials considered and eventually ordered the removal of protections against many abusive detention and interrogation practices. Despite loudly repeated demands by Congress and the American people, the Bush Administration has successfully blocked the release of documents related to policy changes that paved the way for the horrors of Abu Ghraib and other American-operated detention facilities.

You can add your voice here. While you're there, you may want to have a look at some of the documents the ACLU has already pried loose. posted by Thomas Nephew at 9:45:00 PM -- |  

 
Wal-Mart: Regulating store size like... Nazi book burning
Flagstaff, Arizona Wal-Mart newspaper ads are breaking new ground in grossly inappropriate self-pity and hyperbole. Rachel Peterson of the Arizona Daily Sun reports:

The newspaper ads contend that Proposition 100's restrictions on big-box retailers are an infringement of constitutional freedoms. The message has been conveyed through a blurred photo of a Nazi book-burning taken from the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum archives and a close-up of a person's mouth covered with tape.

Some Flagstaff World War II veterans reasonably object that they didn't fight to keep Flagstaff safe for big box stores. Wal-Mart's shill group disagrees:

Tom Farley, a consultant for Protect Flagstaff's Future, the campaign that sponsored the ads, said they will continue because they "make people think."

I suppose he's right: the ads make me think Protect Flagstaff's Future are a bunch of idiots. The article explains that Proposition 100 would require special permits for buildings larger than 75,000 square feet, and would limit the amount of floor space that could be devoted to nontaxable groceries; the measure would effectively prevent so-called "Supercenters" which average 186,000 square feet and devote as much as 40 percent of their floor space for groceries.

How Wal-Mart is being "burned" or destroyed here is beyond me. They have a Flagstaff store. Who knows, maybe they can build another one. But communities and their governments have a right to regulate development as they see fit; that's freedom, too, and one that's more important than Wal-Mart's "right" to build as utterly huge a store as it wants.

I thought the Republican/big business party line used to be that cries of self-pity and persecution were supposedly contemptible. Oh -- that's if you heard it from minorities or poor people. I guess it's OK when it's from the largest company in the United States. How will Wal-Mart possibly cope without Supercenters? Not that I care, but the same way everyone else will.


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UPDATE, 5/13: Wal-Mart Watch has set up an online petition urging Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott to disavow the ad.
UPDATE, 5/16: On Saturday the 14th, the Washington Post's Amy Joyce reported that Wal-Mart apologized, saying it had made a "terrible" mistake in approving the ad.
UPDATE, 5/19: Arizona Republic, May 18: "Wal-Mart backers win a squeaker in Flagstaff" posted by Thomas Nephew at 12:05:00 AM -- |  

 
Bush appointing rapist to FDA committee?
A serial one? Of his wife? Who was suffering from narcolepsy? I'm just asking. From Ayelish McGarvey's "Dr. Hager's Family Values" in The Nation:

Late last October Dr. W. David Hager, a prominent obstetrician-gynecologist and Bush Administration appointee to the Advisory Committee for Reproductive Health Drugs in the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), took to the pulpit as the featured speaker at a morning service. [...]

...Hager cast himself as a victim of religious persecution in his sermon. "You see...there is a war going on in this country," he said gravely. "And I'm not speaking about the war in Iraq. It's a war being waged against Christians, particularly evangelical Christians. It wasn't my scientific record that came under scrutiny [at the FDA]. It was my faith.... By making myself available, God has used me to stand in the breach.... Just as he has used me, he can use you."

It would seem that in Hager's theology, it all evens out: then you can use someone else.

Up on the dais, several men seated behind Hager nodded solemnly in agreement. But out in the audience, Linda Carruth Davis--co-author with Hager of Stress and the Woman's Body, and, more saliently, his former wife of thirty-two years--was enraged. "It was the most disgusting thing I've ever heard," she recalled months later, through clenched teeth.

I read on. And after several involuntarily ironic "Oh. my. God."s I had a more detailed picture than I liked of a reprehensible, sick man.

I suppose some will put the story down to the "he said, she said" anger of a divorce (actually, Hager declined comment for the piece). But why she would say any of it is beyond me if it weren't true: for years, he paid her for sex by leaving a check on the dresser. And when she developed narcolepsy... he didn't even need to write checks any more. McGarvey apparently has a lot of sources on and off the record corroborating that Ms. Davis complained of abuse.

All this might be "just another" case of spousal abuse -- but this guy has clout, too:

In December 2003 the FDA advisory committee of which he is a member was asked to consider whether emergency contraception, known as Plan B, should be made available over the counter. Over Hager's dissent, the committee voted overwhelmingly to approve the change. But the FDA rejected its recommendation, a highly unusual and controversial decision in which Hager, The Nation has learned, played a key role. [...]

In tandem with his medical career, Hager has been an aggressive advocate for the political agenda of the Christian right. A member of Focus on the Family's Physician Resource Council and the Christian Medical and Dental Society, Hager assisted the Concerned Women for America in submitting a "Citizen's Petition" to the FDA in August 2002 to halt distribution and marketing of the abortion pill, RU-486.
(links added*)

Via Shakespeare's Sister.

The image of a Bush administration appointee serially sodomizing a narcoleptic victim is as apt a description of their politics as anything a fiction writer could come up with. Next stop: The Handmaid's Tale.


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* GoToPlanB.com, for "Plan B" link; Liberty Women's Health Care (NY, NY) for "RU-486" link. posted by Thomas Nephew at 11:05:00 PM -- |  

 
Earth's energy imbalance
The Earth's oceans have been getting warmer recently. A recent paper demonstrates that detailed observations over the past 10 years can be very well modeled by assigning the lion's share of the blame for that to greenhouse gases over the past hundred years. Writing for "Real Climate" blog, climatologist Gavin Schmidt explains the recent Science journal article he co-authored, Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications:*

The key points of the paper are that:
i) model simulations with 20th century forcings** are able to match the surface air temperature record,
ii) they also match the measured changes of ocean heat content over the last decade,
iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and
iv) this implies both that there is significant heating "in the pipeline", and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.

The authors also estimate a rise in sea level of 1.5cm over the last decade due to landbound ice melt, which would be an acceleration, and another 1.4cm due to water expanding as it warms. They caution that "the portion of the planetary energy imbalance used for melting is likely to rise as the planet continues to warm..."

But their main message is up front where it should be:

Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing humanmade greenhouse gases and aerosols among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 ± 0.15 W/m2 more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years.

I'll hazard a try at interpreting that figure. 1 watt=1 joule/second; 1 joule is .2389 calories. As far as I can tell, it's just multiplication after that. Since a calorie is the heat needed to warm up one gram of water by 1 degree Centigrade at sea level, the .85W/m2 estimate implies each square meter of the Earth has a net energy intake each second sufficent to raise 1 gram of water by 0.85 * 0.2389 = 0.203 degrees Centigrade. 0.85 * 0.2389 * 60 * 60 * 24 = 17,500 calories per square meter is the corresponding daily net energy intake. (17,500 calories is equivalent to 17.5 of the "big" calories you try to avoid when dieting.)

Since a liter of water is both about 1,000 cubic centimeters of volume and about 1,000 grams of mass, on average a square meter of the Earth's surface nets enough energy each day to raise the temperature of 17.5 liters (18.6 quarts) of water by 1 degree Centigrade; that amount of water would cover the square meter to a depth of 1.75 cm, or about 0.7 inch.

If I've calculated correctly, on average a square meter surface of the Earth nets enough energy each year to warm a square meter column of water about 20 feet deep by one degree Centigrade. Thirty years: 600 feet. 90 years: 600 feet, warmed by three degrees Centigrade.

While I imagine the pressure of that kind of depth would throw off this simple calculation, the calculation also takes that 0.85W/m2 value as a constant. That is, it assumes nothing speeds up, which, as pointed out below, scientists suspect may not be the case.

So maybe it's time to start getting ready: sell your Dutch and Florida shoreline real estate, have plenty of antimalarials and medicines on hand, be prepared to eat less or spend more for the food you buy, wave good-bye to forests and coral reefs, and stock up generally for a drier, thirstier, hungrier, uglier, angrier globe.


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* Science Express, 28 April 2005. Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications. James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Josh Willis, Anthony Del Genio, Dorothy Koch, Andrew Lacis, Ken Lo, Surabi Menon, Tica Novakov, Judith Perlwitz, Gary Russell, Gavin A. Schmidt, Nicholas Tausnev. 26 January 2005; accepted 19 April 2005. Published online 28 April 2005; 10.1126/science.1110252.
** "Forcings" are external boundary conditions or inputs to a climate model; in this case, the 20th century ones allowing the model to closely predict oceanic temperature increases are estimates of the impact of greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget. Table 1 in the paper shows that -- based on prior science -- the authors weighed greenhouse gases (GHGs) far more heavily than other factors such as volcanic aerosols or changes in land use.

CREDIT: many of the links about the consequences of global warming were found via the UK Rivers Network "Finding out about global warming and climate change." posted by Thomas Nephew at 11:10:00 PM -- |  

 
Earth's albedo falling
NASA's Earth Observatory explains:

...white shows areas where Earth reflected the highest percentage of shortwave solar radiation. Dark blue shows areas where Earth reflected the lowest percentage of shortwave solar radiation. Notice how the highest albedo values are in regions where Earth is mostly covered by snow and ice, or clouds, or both. The lowest albedo values occur in forest-covered landscapes or open ocean.

...A drop of as little as 0.01 in Earth’s albedo would have a major warming influence on climate—roughly equal to the effect of doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which would cause Earth to retain an additional 3.4 watts of energy for every square meter of surface area.

In the May 6, 2005, issue of the journal Science, the CERES Science Team reported Earth’s shortwave albedo has been steadily declining since the Terra CERES instrument began making the measurement in February 2000. Over the 4-year span (2000 through 2004), the CERES instrument measured an albedo decrease of 0.0015, which equals an extra half a watt of energy per square meter retained in the Earth system.

Do the bonehead climatologist math -- .01/(.0015/4)= 27 years to "double CO2 effect" if this continues -- and you may feel like "so what? Who cares what happens in 27 years?" But wait! That's not all! The whole thing accelerates, too: more warmth retained melts more ice reflecting sunlight, meaning more dark surfaces to absorb heat, meaning more warmth retained.

In the first article of Elizabeth Kolbert's recent "The Climate of Man" three part series in the New Yorker (I, II, III), ocean scientist Donald Perovich discusses albedo in similar terms:

“Not only is the albedo of the snow-covered ice high; it’s the highest of anything we find on earth,” he went on. “And not only is the albedo of water low; it’s pretty much as low as anything you can find on earth. So what you’re doing is you’re replacing the best reflector with the worst reflector.” The more open water that’s exposed, the more solar energy goes into heating the ocean. The result is a positive feedback, similar to the one between thawing permafrost and carbon releases, only more direct. This so-called ice-albedo feedback is believed to be a major reason that the Arctic is warming so rapidly.

“As we melt that ice back, we can put more heat into the system, which means we can melt the ice back even more, which means we can put more heat into it, and, you see, it just kind of builds on itself,” Perovich said. “It takes a small nudge to the climate system and amplifies it into a big change.”

It seems to me more and more like we have only a few choices: we can either start slowing down global warming now, slam on the brakes later, or hit the wall shortly after that. posted by Thomas Nephew at 10:05:00 PM -- |  

 
That's really not so much to ask
Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich has vowed to veto the landmark Maryland "Fair Share Health Care" bill, which compels large companies like Wal-Mart to either pay their workers sufficient health care benefits (8% of payroll), or pay the balance into a state Medicaid fund.

Now it turns out that Mr. Ehrlich is the benefactor of chump change "tips" by Wal-Mart: $4000 at the beginning of the year, and hosted a $1000 a plate fundraiser in December. A Washington Post "Maryland In Brief" item article gets the response from Wal-Mart Watch:

If Governor Ehrlich is intent to vetoing this bill, he could at least reduce the appearance of being bought by the company,' said Wal-Mart Watch spokeswoman Tracy Sefl.

(emphasis added, 'cause it made me laugh) Yeah. I mean, as a dumb citizen, I like my politicians to at least pretend to be independent of mammoth corporations. You'll get your lobbying job soon enough, Bob.

Via Wal-Mart Watch, where you can also find a petition to Governor Ehrlich to return the Wal-Mart money, and get "... out of the pocket of Wal-Mart, Inc. and ... back to work for the people of his state." posted by Thomas Nephew at 12:40:00 AM -- |  

 
Race to save the "Lord God Bird"
Those are no longer words from the title of a book, about the history of a losing effort. It's a direct challenge to you: that race is on again. The "Lord God Bird" -- the name given by awestruck observers to the largest woodpecker in North America -- is still alive.

I'm no birder. I think the bird I'm hearing outside my window in the morning is a titmouse, but that's about the level of my ornithology. So I was a little surprised at how really pleased I was when I read this in the Washington Post a couple of weeks ago ("Extinct? After 60 years, Ivory-billed Woodpecker begs to differ," David Brown and Eric Pianin):

The ivory-billed woodpecker, last seen in 1944 and long assumed to be extinct, is alive and well and living in Arkansas. [...]

"This is confirmed. This is dead solid confirmed," said John W. Fitzpatrick, head of the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology and the lead author of a paper describing the discovery published online yesterday by the journal Science.

I'm just not used to genuinely, wonderfully good news any more. The first sighting was in February of last year by Gene Sparling, an Arkansas native and bird enthusiast. From the Post story:

"I had just set my paddle down and had leaned back in my seat and was thinking what a beautiful, fantastic, awe-inspiring place this was," he said yesterday.

Out of the treetops came a huge woodpecker, straight at him. It landed on a tree trunk about 60 feet away. Sparling's camera was in rubber bag on his lap, but he did not go for it. Instead he looked at the bird and noted its markings before it moved up the trunk, playing peekaboo with him, and flew away.

For the next two days, Sparling argued with himself. He knew what he had seen was not a pileated woodpecker -- the ivory bill's almost-as-impressive cousin -- but he could not believe it was an ivory bill.

He published his findings in a local journal; a followup expedition a week later with Tim Gallagher (Cornell Ornithology Lab) and Bobby Harrison (Oakmont College) resulted in another sighting. From the Nature Conservancy press release:

"When we finished our notes," Gallagher said, “Bobby sat down on a log, put his face in his hands and began to sob, saying, 'I saw an ivory-bill. I saw an ivory-bill.'" Gallagher said he was too choked with emotion to speak. "Just to think this bird made it into the 21st century gives me chills. It’s like a funeral shroud has been pulled back, giving us a glimpse of a living bird, rising Lazarus-like from the grave," he said.

The Nature Conservancy and allied groups mounted an expedition to search for and ultimately confirm* their discovery.

Tomorrow afternoon at 4pm you can chat online with The Race to Save the Lord God Bird author Philip Hoose about the news at the Nature Conservancy web site.**

While you're there, you should lay a little cash on the Nature Conservancy. Together with the "Big Woods Conservation Partnership,"*** they're mounting an campaign to make the Big Woods region of Arkansas a bigger, better home for the ivory-billed woodpecker:

The Nature Conservancy has helped protect more than 120,000 acres of the Big Woods, and is now aiming to conserve and restore an additional 200,000 acres of forest.

I donated some money, and I really stretched things a bit this time. But they'll need more than I can afford. We've got a very, very rare second chance here. Let's not blow it.


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* Science Express , 28 April 2005: Ivory-Billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) Persists in Continental North America. John W. Fitzpatrick, Martjan Lammertink,M. David Luneau Jr., Tim W. Gallagher, Bobby R. Harrison, Gene M. Sparling, Kenneth V. Rosenberg, Ronald W. Rohrbaugh, Elliott C. H. Swarthout, Peter H. Wrege, Sara Barker Swarthout, Marc S. Dantzker, Russell A. Charif, Timothy R. Barksdale, J.V. Remsen Jr., Scott D. Simon, Douglas Zollner. 8 April 2005; accepted 27 April 2005. Published online 28 April 2005; 10.1126/science.1114103
** You can submit questions ahead of time; 5 randomly selected questioners will get a free copy of Hoose's book.
*** The Big Woods Conservation Partnership includes Cornell Lab Of Ornithology, US Fish and Wildlife Service, University of Arkansas, LSU, and several other colleges and organizations.

EDIT, 5/11: previous photo (labeled D) was of a pileated woodpecker.
UPDATE, 5/11: Quicktime movie and supporting online materials (sketches, photos, etc.) via Science Magazine. posted by Thomas Nephew at 9:40:00 PM -- |