Reasons given for having abortions in the United States

Reasons given for having abortions in the United States
by Wm. Robert Johnston
last updated 1 October 2005

Summary: This report reviews available statistics regarding reasons given for obtaining abortions in the United States, including surveys by the Alan Guttmacher Institute and data from seven state health/statistics agencies that report relevant statistics (Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Utah). The official data imply that AGI claims regarding "hard case" abortions are inflated by roughly a factor of three. Actual percentage of U.S. abortions in "hard cases" are estimated as follows: in cases of rape or incest, 0.3%; in cases of risk to maternal health or life, 1%; and in cases of fetal abnormality, 0.5%. About 98% of abortions in the United States are elective, including socio-economic reasons or for birth control. This includes about 25% for primarily economic reasons.

Contents:

Introduction
AGI studies
Issues with rape-related statistics
Abortions for sex selection
State statistics
Adjusted figures
Summary and conclusions
Sources

Introduction: The reasons given for having abortions are relevant to formulating public policy regarding abortion. In many countries, abortions are permissible only for limited reasons.[1] In the United States, abortion on demand and for any reason is the existing state of law (with a few limitations in some states[2]). As debate continue regarding this practice, advocates of unrestrained abortion often cite the "hard cases"--cases of rape, incest, life or health of the mother or baby--in defending access to abortion. It is widely acknowledged that such cases are rare; however, available data suggest that some commonly cited figures are exaggerated.

Further, the prevailing preferences of the American electorate are often cited in reference to U.S. abortion legislation. Some will claim, for example, that most Americans support legal abortion. While majority vote is an unconstitutional means of limiting human rights (regardless of what position on abortion one thinks is the one consistent with human rights), the claim itself is a half-truth. Most Americans would oppose banning abortions for hard cases, but at the same time most Americans would support limits on elective abortions, e.g. abortions for convenience or for sex selection.

This article will review some available data that addresses the reasons cited for abortions in the United States.

AGI studies: The Alan Guttmacher Institute (AGI) has published several studies examining reasons for abortions in the United States. Two studies surveyed women obtaining abortions; these were conducted in 1987 and 2004. A third survey conducted in 2000-2001 surveyed abortion seekers about contraceptive use; this study provided limited data on reasons for abortions. These studies are discussed in chronological order.

The 1987 AGI study, published in 1988, [3] surveyed 1,900 women who had abortions. The results of this survey are among the most commonly cited figures regarding reasons for abortions in the United States. The 1,773 women who responded gave an average of 3.7 reasons from the list, with the most important reasons cited by respondents tabulated below. It should be noted that only rounded percentages, not raw numbers, were provided; an AGI review article in 1998 [4] referenced the 1988 study but gave slightly different figures, shown below in parenthesis (the parenthetical figure for rape and incest is a range of uncertainty derived from breakdowns in the 1988 report).

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: AGI SURVEY, 1987 [3, 4]

reason % of abortions

rape or incest 1 (0.4-1.3)

mother has health problems 3 (2.8)

possible fetal health problems 3 (3.3)

unready for responsibility 21

is too immature or young to have child 11 (12.2)

woman's parents want her to have abortion <0.5

has problems with relationship or wants to avoid single parenthood 12 (14.1)

husband or partner wants her to have abortion 1

has all the children she wanted or all children are grown 8 (7.9)

can't afford baby now 21 (21.3)

concerned about how having baby would change her life 16

doesn't want others to know she had relations or is pregnant 1

other 3

reason	% of abortions
rape or incest	1	(0.4-1.3)
mother has health problems	3	(2.8)
possible fetal health problems	3	(3.3)
unready for responsibility	21
is too immature or young to have child	11	(12.2)
woman's parents want her to have abortion	<0.5
has problems with relationship or wants to avoid single parenthood	12	(14.1)
husband or partner wants her to have abortion	1
has all the children she wanted or all children are grown	8	(7.9)
can't afford baby now	21	(21.3)
concerned about how having baby would change her life	16
doesn't want others to know she had relations or is pregnant	1
other	3

Another AGI study[8], conducted in 2000-2001, examined contraceptive use but provides some information relating to reasons for abortion. Some data from this survey of 10,683 women obtaining abortions is given below:

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: AGI SURVEY, 2000-2001 [8]

reason or situation number % of abortions

not using contraception 4,957 46.40

forced to have relations ~64 0.6

using contraception 5,726 53.60

contraceptive failed despite proper use ~1,808 16.9

total 10,683 100

reason or situation	number	% of abortions
not using contraception	4,957	46.40
	forced to have relations	~64	0.6
using contraception	5,726	53.60
	contraceptive failed despite proper use	~1,808	16.9
total	10,683	100

In this survey, 0.6% reported being forced to have relations (although a figure as high as 0.8% is possible depending on data breakdown). It is also interesting to note that 17% of abortions were for pregnancies following "proper" use of contraception. This would tend to undermine the claims regarding the efficacy of contraception methods, something highly promoted by groups such as Planned Parenthood.

An AGI study published in 2005 [22] was modeled after the 1987 study, providing an update to that work. This survey was conducted from December 2003 to March 2004; of approximately 2,000 women obtaining abortions who were surveyed, 1,209 completed questionnaires. As with the 1987, only rounded percentages as opposed to raw numbers were reported. Again, respondents could give multiple reasons, and the median number of four reasons were given. The table below gives reported percentages for the most important reason and for all reasons cited.

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: AGI SURVEY, 2004 [22]

reason % of abortions,
most important reason % of abortions,
all reasons

rape <0.5 (1)

incest (<0.5)

mother has health problems 4 (12)

possible fetal health problems 3 (13)

unready 25 (32)

is too immature or young to have child 7 (22)

woman's parents want her to have abortion <0.5 (6)

has problems with relationship or wants to avoid single parenthood 8 (48)

husband or partner wants her to have abortion <0.5 (14)

has all the children she wanted or all children are grown 19 (38)

can't afford baby now 23 (73)

--unmarried (42)

--student or planning to study (34)

--can't afford baby and child care (28)

--can't afford basic life needs (23)

--unemployed (22)

--can't leave job to care for baby (21)

--would have to find new place to live (19)

--not enough support from husband/partner (14)

--husband/partner unemployed (12)

--currently on welfare or public assistance (8)

concerned about how having baby would change her life (74)

--would interfere with education plans 4 (38)

--would interfere with career plans (38)

--would interfere with care of children or dependents (32)

doesn't want others to know she had relations or is pregnant <0.5 (25)

other 6

reason	% of abortions, most important reason	% of abortions, all reasons
rape	<0.5	(1)
incest	(<0.5)
mother has health problems	4	(12)
possible fetal health problems	3	(13)
unready	25	(32)
is too immature or young to have child	7	(22)
woman's parents want her to have abortion	<0.5	(6)
has problems with relationship or wants to avoid single parenthood	8	(48)
husband or partner wants her to have abortion	<0.5	(14)
has all the children she wanted or all children are grown	19	(38)
can't afford baby now	23	(73)
--unmarried		(42)
--student or planning to study		(34)
--can't afford baby and child care		(28)
--can't afford basic life needs		(23)
--unemployed		(22)
--can't leave job to care for baby		(21)
--would have to find new place to live		(19)
--not enough support from husband/partner		(14)
--husband/partner unemployed		(12)
--currently on welfare or public assistance		(8)
concerned about how having baby would change her life		(74)
--would interfere with education plans	4	(38)
--would interfere with career plans	(38)
--would interfere with care of children or dependents		(32)
doesn't want others to know she had relations or is pregnant	<0.5	(25)
other	6

Recent AGI literature has given figures of abortions following rape or incest. For example, an April 2005 information sheet [24] states that about 13,000 women have abortions following rape or incest. This is 1.0% of AGI-estimated annual abortions in 2000-2002. This figure appears to be derived from the 1987 survey percentage (or from preliminary results of the 2004 survey).

Issues with rape-related statistics: The AGI-based figure of 1% of abortions for cases of rape or incest is widely cited. However, it is the product of a limited survey by an organization with a stated objective of advocating unlimited access to abortion services. It is thus desirable to seek an independent source of such figures, such as that provided by the state reported statistics reviewed below. Evaluating this claim involves issues of reliability of rape-related statistics.

If the AGI figure for 1987 is correct, it would imply that 15,600 abortions in 1987 were for such cases.[5] Since the FBI only reported 91,110 forcible rapes in the U.S. in that year[6], this would imply that one out of six rapes resulted in pregnancy. This is higher fraction than appears to be supported by medical research--although the degree to which rapes go unreported is an issue here.

According to the FBI, reported annual numbers of rapes rose from just over 90,000 in the late 1980s to a peak of 109,000 in 1992, then dropped to about 90,000 for the years 1999-2002. Some sources estimate much larger unreported numbers. Stewart and Trussell [26] cite 333,000 rapes and sexual assaults reported in 1998, and additionally cite a National Women's Study which claimed 683,000 rapes in 1992. The latter figure would mean 5.3 unreported rapes for every reported rape. The wide range in estimates of unreported rapes is evidence of the problem of quantifying these figures.

Another issue is the frequency of rape-related pregnancy. Some sources claim very low frequencies, citing medical studies, and concluding the total number of pregnancies resulting from rape each year is on the order of 200-500.[7] Others obtain somewhat higher frequencies. Holmes et al. [25] surveyed 4,008 women and found a rate of pregnancy following rape of 5%. Additionally, of 34 cases of pregnancy after rape, they found 17 (50%) had an abortion, 11 (32%) kept the baby, 2 (6%) gave the baby up for adoption, and 4 (12%) miscarried. This frequency of 5% is representative of cited values.

Taking currently reported rapes of 90,000 per year and assuming 5% result in pregnancy and 50% of these are aborted, this implies 4,500 pregancies per year following rape of which 2,250 are aborted. The most extreme claimed rates of underreporting are necessary to bring this in line with AGI's claim of 13,000 rape-related abortions per year. Even higher levels of rape-related pregnancies have been claimed: Stewart and Trussell [26] cite the previously mentioned National Women's Study claiming 32,000 per year in 1992, and this figure is repeated by Holmes et al. [25] and by an AGI article in 2002 [23]. Stewart and Trussell extrapolate this to 25,000 per year in 1998 merely by considering lower crime rates. These higher rates are required to support the AGI claim of 1% of abortions for rape. Alternately, if only 50% of rapes are unreported then (using Holmes et al. data) a percentage of only 0.35% of abortions for rape is implied.

Such statistical approaches are very uncertain. The reasons for abortion are of course self-reported by the abortion seeker and thus not verifiable. It could be hypothesized that for various reasons women seeking abortions might falsely give rape as a reason, or alternately conceal rape as a reason. Apart from the issue of the rate of underreporting, certainly it is the case that many rapes go unreported. Thus, rape-related abortion data interpretation is hampered by the particularly traumatic circumstances of such cases. Nonetheless, it will be seen below that the larger sampling in states that report figures for rape-related abortions give consistent results, supporting the reasoning for lower figures than the AGI figures.

Abortions for sex selection: While not a major issue in the United States, abortions for the purpose of selecting the sex of the child are quite common in Asia. Several Asian countries, including the People's Republic of China, India, and South Korea, are beginning to show significant demographic impacts resulting from such practices.

A study reported in JAMA in 1998[9] reported a 0.2% decrease in the ratio of male to female live births in the United States from 1970 to 1990. The authors of the 1998 study discuss a variety of health factors that could influence this ratio, and the male/female birth ratio is sufficiently dependent on health that no conclusions can be drawn from these figures regarding sex selection abortions in the U.S. The authors do not discuss abortion as a possible cause for the change, however.

Data from the CDC in 2002[10] suggested that the decrease was 0.3% from 1970 to 2000. In 2005 the CDC completed a more detailed analysis[11] of trends in the U.S. male/female birth ratio. The authors identified several up or down trends in the ratio between 1940 and 2002, including a 0.6% decline in the male/female birth ratio from 1970 to 2002. They analyzed possible factors (age of mother, birth order, ethnicity) and noted additional parental/environmental characteristics that naturally influence the birth ratio. They did note that family preference can affect the birth ratio (although they did not explicitly point out that this is via such means as sex selection abortions) and does in some country, but do not report any indication that it is a factor in the United States. The historical variation in U.S. male/female birth ratio is within the range observed in connection to biological influences (e.g. parental/environmental).

A mere 0.44% of abortions in 2000 corresponds to 5,800 pregnancies.[12] Still, no conclusion can be drawn except that abortions for sex selection are not having a discernable impact on the male/female birth ratio in the United States.

State statistics: In the United States, limited official statistics are available. Abortion reporting varies significantly from state to state. Seven states report data on the reasons given for obtaining abortions (with varying definitions and levels of detail). These figures are self-reported by women obtaining abortions, as in the case of the AGI studies discussed above. However, they are independent data and involve a larger sample. Below are results for these states--Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Utah:

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: ARIZONA [13]

reason 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

medical 16 7 11 11 7 10 3 6 11 9 17

elective 15,274 14,300 15,228 14,068 11,078 13,075 13,504 12,709 11,739 11,891 10,588

unknown 314 148 376 271 490 805 375 178 102 360 1,133

total 15,604 14,455 15,615 14,350 11,575 13,890 13,882 12,893 11,852 12,260 11,738

reason	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
medical	16	7	11	11	7	10	3	6	11	9	17
elective	15,274	14,300	15,228	14,068	11,078	13,075	13,504	12,709	11,739	11,891	10,588
unknown	314	148	376	271	490	805	375	178	102	360	1,133
total	15,604	14,455	15,615	14,350	11,575	13,890	13,882	12,893	11,852	12,260	11,738

reason 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 total
1985-2003 % of abortions % of abortions,
known reasons

medical 10 6 12 19 15 10 21 43 244 0.10 0.11

elective 10,768 11,012 14,144 10,390 9,614 8,210 9,910 9,602 227,104 97.21 99.89

unknown 90 3 450 247 2 6 466 449 6,265 2.68 N/A

total 10,868 11,021 14,606 10,656 9,631 8,226 10,397 10,094 233,613 100.00 100.00

reason	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	total 1985-2003	% of abortions	% of abortions, known reasons
medical	10	6	12	19	15	10	21	43	244	0.10	0.11
elective	10,768	11,012	14,144	10,390	9,614	8,210	9,910	9,602	227,104	97.21	99.89
unknown	90	3	450	247	2	6	466	449	6,265	2.68	N/A
total	10,868	11,021	14,606	10,656	9,631	8,226	10,397	10,094	233,613	100.00	100.00

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: FLORIDA [14]

reason 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 total
1998-2003 % of abortions % of abortions,
known reason

physical condition 401 346 453 350 439 514 2,503 0.48 0.48

mental condition 159 150 143 109 72 80 713 0.14 0.14

abnormal fetus 470 474 430 454 482 457 2,767 0.53 0.53

personal choice 80,889 82,589 87,199 84,343 86,445 88,409 509,874 98.35 98.36

other 416 412 330 314 521 535 2,528 0.49 0.49

unknown 0 0 8 19 5 0 32 0.01 N/A

total 82,335 83,971 88,563 85,589 87,964 89,995 518,417 100.00 100.00

reason	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	total 1998-2003	% of abortions	% of abortions, known reason
physical condition	401	346	453	350	439	514	2,503	0.48	0.48
mental condition	159	150	143	109	72	80	713	0.14	0.14
abnormal fetus	470	474	430	454	482	457	2,767	0.53	0.53
personal choice	80,889	82,589	87,199	84,343	86,445	88,409	509,874	98.35	98.36
other	416	412	330	314	521	535	2,528	0.49	0.49
unknown	0	0	8	19	5	0	32	0.01	N/A
total	82,335	83,971	88,563	85,589	87,964	89,995	518,417	100.00	100.00

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: LOUISIANA [15]

reason 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 total
1996-2002 % of abortions % of abortions,
known reason

rape or incest 4 4 3 1 1 1 0 14 0.02 0.49

physical health 8 17 19 16 14 8 3 85 0.11 2.98

mental health 392 415 164 77 140 52 37 1,277 1.60 44.84

risk of fetal deformity 9 21 7 9 13 10 7 76 0.10 2.67

other 114 421 250 258 192 143 18 1,396 1.75 49.02

unknown 11,357 10,861 10,908 11,647 11,024 10,718 10,386 76,901 96.43 N/A

total 11,884 11,739 11,351 12,008 11,384 10,932 10,451 79,749 100.00 100.00

reason	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	total 1996-2002	% of abortions	% of abortions, known reason
rape or incest	4	4	3	1	1	1	0	14	0.02	0.49
physical health	8	17	19	16	14	8	3	85	0.11	2.98
mental health	392	415	164	77	140	52	37	1,277	1.60	44.84
risk of fetal deformity	9	21	7	9	13	10	7	76	0.10	2.67
other	114	421	250	258	192	143	18	1,396	1.75	49.02
unknown	11,357	10,861	10,908	11,647	11,024	10,718	10,386	76,901	96.43	N/A
total	11,884	11,739	11,351	12,008	11,384	10,932	10,451	79,749	100.00	100.00

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: MINNESOTA [16]

reason* Oct-Dec1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 total
Oct1998-Dec2003 % of abortions % of abortions,
known reason

rape 30 113 124 98 81 75 69 590 0.66 1.06

incest 2 3 6 7 14 9 6 47 0.05 0.08

emotional health 270 653 793 859 844 1,001 1,019 5,439 6.09 9.73

physical health 149 510 584 636 622 844 778 4,123 4.62 7.37

pregnancy will impair major bodily function 22 49 44 34 30 27 31 237 0.27 0.42

fetal anomalies 86 177 210 158 113 147 133 1,024 1.15 1.83

economic reasons 734 1,601 2,379 2,512 2,546 2,499 2,647 14,918 16.70 26.68

does not want children now 1,215 4,449 5,618 6,482 6,080 5,655 5,124 34,623 38.77 61.91

other elective* 779 2,854 3,315 3,227 2,239 2,479 2,510 17,403 19.49 31.12

--single parent 749 788 724 359 802 752 4,174 4.67 7.46

--to pursue educational goals 551 754 872 419 500 270 3,366 3.77 6.02

--already have enough children 362 406 369 368 351 230 2,086 2.34 3.73

--relationship issues 307 490 498 356 335 182 2,168 2.43 3.88

--other 885 1,604 1,294 1,009 1,109 1,242 7,143 8.00 12.77

unknown 1,371 6,674 4,767 4,618 5,054 5,460 5,440 33,384 37.38 N/A

total 3,508 14,342 14,477 14,833 14,186 14,174 13,788 89,308 100.00 100.00

Note: The Minnesota questionnaire allows respondents to indicate more than one reason. The category identified as "other elective" includes other reasons (some listed) from which respondents may select also indicate more than one.

reason*	Oct-Dec1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	total Oct1998-Dec2003	% of abortions	% of abortions, known reason
rape	30	113	124	98	81	75	69	590	0.66	1.06
incest	2	3	6	7	14	9	6	47	0.05	0.08
emotional health	270	653	793	859	844	1,001	1,019	5,439	6.09	9.73
physical health	149	510	584	636	622	844	778	4,123	4.62	7.37
pregnancy will impair major bodily function	22	49	44	34	30	27	31	237	0.27	0.42
fetal anomalies	86	177	210	158	113	147	133	1,024	1.15	1.83
economic reasons	734	1,601	2,379	2,512	2,546	2,499	2,647	14,918	16.70	26.68
does not want children now	1,215	4,449	5,618	6,482	6,080	5,655	5,124	34,623	38.77	61.91
other elective*	779	2,854	3,315	3,227	2,239	2,479	2,510	17,403	19.49	31.12
	--single parent		749	788	724	359	802	752	4,174	4.67	7.46
	--to pursue educational goals		551	754	872	419	500	270	3,366	3.77	6.02
	--already have enough children		362	406	369	368	351	230	2,086	2.34	3.73
	--relationship issues		307	490	498	356	335	182	2,168	2.43	3.88
	--other		885	1,604	1,294	1,009	1,109	1,242	7,143	8.00	12.77
unknown	1,371	6,674	4,767	4,618	5,054	5,460	5,440	33,384	37.38	N/A
total	3,508	14,342	14,477	14,833	14,186	14,174	13,788	89,308	100.00	100.00

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: NEBRASKA [17]

reason* 2001 2002 2003 2004 total
2001-2004 % of abortions

rape 18 11 10 18 57 0.29

incest 0 1 1 1 3 0.02

maternal life endangered 6 1 6 8 21 0.11

maternal physical health 48 45 160 85 338 1.75

mental health 691 667 733 316 2,407 12.46

fetal anomaly 25 17 35 11 88 0.46

socio-economic 2,550 2,567 3,096 3,240 11,453 59.27

contraceptive failure 750 687 766 1,047 3,250 16.82

no contraception used 850 766 1,185 850 3,651 18.89

unknown 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

total 3,982 3,775 5,992 5,576 19,325 100.00

Note: The Nebraska questionnaire allows respondents to indicate multiple reasons, so numbers add to more than total abortions.

reason*	2001	2002	2003	2004	total 2001-2004	% of abortions
rape	18	11	10	18	57	0.29
incest	0	1	1	1	3	0.02
maternal life endangered	6	1	6	8	21	0.11
maternal physical health	48	45	160	85	338	1.75
mental health	691	667	733	316	2,407	12.46
fetal anomaly	25	17	35	11	88	0.46
socio-economic	2,550	2,567	3,096	3,240	11,453	59.27
contraceptive failure	750	687	766	1,047	3,250	16.82
no contraception used	850	766	1,185	850	3,651	18.89
unknown	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
total	3,982	3,775	5,992	5,576	19,325	100.00

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: SOUTH DAKOTA [18]

reason 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 total
1999-2003 % of abortions % of abortions,
known reason

rape or incest 12 16 14 20 21 83 1.55 1.59

substantial/irreversible bodily impairment 7 9 19 16 16 67 1.25 1.29

emotional health 28 51 84 94 104 361 6.73 6.92

can't afford child 176 233 353 384 366 1,512 28.19 29.00

doesn't want child 459 503 547 536 525 2,570 47.92 49.30

other 110 139 144 103 124 620 11.56 11.89

unknown 15 41 34 27 33 150 2.80 N/A

total 807 992 1,212 1,180 1,189 5,363 100.00 100.00

reason	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	total 1999-2003	% of abortions	% of abortions, known reason
rape or incest	12	16	14	20	21	83	1.55	1.59
substantial/irreversible bodily impairment	7	9	19	16	16	67	1.25	1.29
emotional health	28	51	84	94	104	361	6.73	6.92
can't afford child	176	233	353	384	366	1,512	28.19	29.00
doesn't want child	459	503	547	536	525	2,570	47.92	49.30
other	110	139	144	103	124	620	11.56	11.89
unknown	15	41	34	27	33	150	2.80	N/A
total	807	992	1,212	1,180	1,189	5,363	100.00	100.00

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABORTIONS: UTAH [19]

reason 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 total
1996-2003 % of abortions % of abortions,
known reason

rape 38 39 28 44 30 11 3 193 0.84 0.84

incest 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 6 0.03 0.03

maternal life endangered 19 10 5 8 6 11 10 69 0.30 0.30

fetal malformation 21 17 5 7 20 8 8 86 0.37 0.38

HIV positive 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.00 0.00

therapeutic 3,154 3,054 3,184 3,206 3,289 3,251 3,304 22,442 97.75 98.04

elective 3 2 0 4 25 13 4 51 0.22 0.22

other 39 2 1 0 0 0 0 42 0.18 0.18

unknown 17 13 13 10 2 6 8 69 0.30 N/A

total 3,293 3,140 3,237 3,279 3,372 3,300 3,338 22,959 100.00 100.00

reason	1996	1997	1998	2000	2001	2002	2003	total 1996-2003	% of abortions	% of abortions, known reason
rape	38	39	28	44	30	11	3	193	0.84	0.84
incest	2	3	1	0	0	0	0	6	0.03	0.03
maternal life endangered	19	10	5	8	6	11	10	69	0.30	0.30
fetal malformation	21	17	5	7	20	8	8	86	0.37	0.38
HIV positive	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.00	0.00
therapeutic	3,154	3,054	3,184	3,206	3,289	3,251	3,304	22,442	97.75	98.04
elective	3	2	0	4	25	13	4	51	0.22	0.22
other	39	2	1	0	0	0	0	42	0.18	0.18
unknown	17	13	13	10	2	6	8	69	0.30	N/A
total	3,293	3,140	3,237	3,279	3,372	3,300	3,338	22,959	100.00	100.00

Together, the available statistics from these seven states represent 968,734 abortions. The definitions and reporting of reasons vary from state to state. It should be noted that these states are not necessarily representative of the nation as a whole; some implications of this are analyzed below.

Adjusted figures: Use of these figures to estimate nationwide percentages is affected by differences from state to state. As an example, consider the figures for abortions in cases of rape. The occurrence of rape varies from state to state and also has declined nationwide by 14% since the 1987 AGI study [6]. Further, the fraction of pregnancies that end in abortion varies considerably from state to state, with these figures dominated by abortions for personal choice and not particularly linked to hard cases. The following table illustrates the adjustments implied by making a few assumptions. (In this table and those that follow, figures for rapes, pregnancies, etc., for recent years are extrapolated if not yet available.)

ADJUSTED FIGURES FOR ABORTIONS IN THE CASE OF RAPE

region year(s) stated % of abortions in cases of rape forcible rapes during sample period [6] abortions in cases of rape as a percentage of reported rapes implied U.S. number of abortions in cases of rape in 2002 % of 2002 abortions [20]

Louisiana 1996-2002 0.49 11,090 3.53 3,360 0.26

Minnesota 1998-2004 0.66 13,543 4.36 3,940 0.30

Nebraska 2001-2004 0.31 1,354 4.43 4,220 0.33

South Dakota 1999-2003 1.55 1,707 4.86 4,630 0.36

Utah 1996-2003 0.87 7,019 2.84 2,700 0.21

USA (AGI survey) 1987 1 91,110 17.11 16,300 1.26

USA (AGI survey) 2000-2001 0.6 180,677 8.69 8,300 0.64

USA (AGI survey) 2004 0.5
1 72,240 8.95
17.90 8,090
16,200 0.63
1.25

region	year(s)	stated % of abortions in cases of rape	forcible rapes during sample period [6]	abortions in cases of rape as a percentage of reported rapes	implied U.S. number of abortions in cases of rape in 2002	% of 2002 abortions [20]
Louisiana	1996-2002	0.49	11,090	3.53	3,360	0.26
Minnesota	1998-2004	0.66	13,543	4.36	3,940	0.30
Nebraska	2001-2004	0.31	1,354	4.43	4,220	0.33
South Dakota	1999-2003	1.55	1,707	4.86	4,630	0.36
Utah	1996-2003	0.87	7,019	2.84	2,700	0.21
USA (AGI survey)	1987	1	91,110	17.11	16,300	1.26
USA (AGI survey)	2000-2001	0.6	180,677	8.69	8,300	0.64
USA (AGI survey)	2004	0.5 1	72,240	8.95 17.90	8,090 16,200	0.63 1.25

The data for the five states listed give quite consistent results--results significantly below figures based on AGI studies. The correlation between the numbers of abortions reported in cases of rape and respective state rates of forcible rape tend to support the credibility of these figures. If the various assumptions used here are valid, they would imply only about 0.3% of abortions nationwide are in cases of rape.

Similarly, if it is assumed that abortions in cases where there are maternal or fetal health problems are a consistent fraction of pregnancies, the implied nationwide percentages in such cases would be as follows:

ADJUSTED FIGURES FOR ABORTIONS IN THE CASE OF MATERNAL HEALTH PROBLEMS

region year(s) % of abortions where mother's health is cited number of abortions total known pregancies [21] cited abortions as a percentage of known pregnancies implied U.S. number of abortions in such cases in 2002 % of 2002 abortions [20]

Arizona 1985-2003 0.10 244 1,644,241 0.015 800 0.06

Florida 1998-2003 0.48 2,503 1,739,062 0.144 7,650 0.59

Louisiana 1996-2002 0.11 85 544,101 0.016 850 0.07

Minnesota 1998-2004 4.89 4,360 521,678 0.836 44,400 3.43

Nebraska 2001-2004 1.86 359 118,232 0.304 16,200 1.25

South Dakota 1999-2003 1.25 67 57,412 0.117 6,220 0.48

Utah 1996-2003 0.30 69 347,640 0.020 1,060 0.08

USA (AGI survey) 1987 3 0.867 46,100 3.57

USA (AGI survey) 2004 4 0.973 51,700 4.00

region	year(s)	% of abortions where mother's health is cited	number of abortions	total known pregancies [21]	cited abortions as a percentage of known pregnancies	implied U.S. number of abortions in such cases in 2002	% of 2002 abortions [20]
Arizona	1985-2003	0.10	244	1,644,241	0.015	800	0.06
Florida	1998-2003	0.48	2,503	1,739,062	0.144	7,650	0.59
Louisiana	1996-2002	0.11	85	544,101	0.016	850	0.07
Minnesota	1998-2004	4.89	4,360	521,678	0.836	44,400	3.43
Nebraska	2001-2004	1.86	359	118,232	0.304	16,200	1.25
South Dakota	1999-2003	1.25	67	57,412	0.117	6,220	0.48
Utah	1996-2003	0.30	69	347,640	0.020	1,060	0.08
USA (AGI survey)	1987	3			0.867	46,100	3.57
USA (AGI survey)	2004	4			0.973	51,700	4.00

ADJUSTED FIGURES FOR ABORTIONS IN THE CASE OF FETAL HEALTH PROBLEMS

region year(s) % of abortions where fetal health is cited number of abortions total known pregancies [21] cited abortions as a percentage of known pregnancies implied U.S. number of abortions in such cases in 2002 % of 2002 abortions [20]

Florida 1998-2003 0.53 2,767 1,739,062 0.159 8,450 0.65

Louisiana 1996-2002 0.10 76 544,101 0.014 740 0.06

Minnesota 1998-2004 1.15 1,024 521,678 0.196 10,400 0.80

Nebraska 2001-2004 0.46 42 118,232 0.036 1,910 0.15

Utah 1996-2003 0.37 87 347,640 0.025 1,330 0.10

USA (AGI survey) 1987 3 0.867 46,100 3.57

USA (AGI survey) 2004 3 0.730 38,800 3.00

region	year(s)	% of abortions where fetal health is cited	number of abortions	total known pregancies [21]	cited abortions as a percentage of known pregnancies	implied U.S. number of abortions in such cases in 2002	% of 2002 abortions [20]
Florida	1998-2003	0.53	2,767	1,739,062	0.159	8,450	0.65
Louisiana	1996-2002	0.10	76	544,101	0.014	740	0.06
Minnesota	1998-2004	1.15	1,024	521,678	0.196	10,400	0.80
Nebraska	2001-2004	0.46	42	118,232	0.036	1,910	0.15
Utah	1996-2003	0.37	87	347,640	0.025	1,330	0.10
USA (AGI survey)	1987	3			0.867	46,100	3.57
USA (AGI survey)	2004	3			0.730	38,800	3.00

Summary and conclusions: Based on these figures, the following estimated percentages are suggested (along with ranges of values from the above studies and analyses):

REASONS FOR ABORTIONS: COMPILED ESTIMATES

rape 0.3 % (0.2-0.6 %)

incest 0.03 % (<0.1 %)

physical life of mother 0.2 % (0.1-0.3 %)

physical health of mother 1.0 % (0.1-3 %)

fetal health 0.5 % (0.1-1.0 %)

mental health of mother depends on definition

"personal choice"
--too young/immature/not ready for responsibility
--economic
--to avoid adjusting life
--mother single or in poor relationship
--enough children already 98% (78-99 %)
--(32 %)
--25% (21-28 %)
--(16 %)
--(12-13 %)
--(4-8 %)

Quantifying cases involving the "mental health" of the mother is difficult due to the highly subjective use of this term (as demonstrated by the wide range in percentage of abortions reported for this reason). It is likely that the number of cases involving clinical mental illness falls towards the low end of the range given above.

These official state statistics suggest that the commonly cited AGI figures for the "hard cases" are high, perhaps by a factor of three. In any case, however, there appears to be consensus that the hard cases--rape, incest, life/health of mother or baby--are a very small fraction of cases. They are arguably a poor premise for formulating general public policy regarding abortion. Rather, AGI's surveys of 1987 and 2004 (as well as the detailed statistics from Minnesota) suggest that a significant fraction of abortions are done by mothers who have the means to care for a child, but simply do not want their lives inconvenienced. This is an example of the consequences of the current extreme policy in the United States regarding abortion.

Sources:

United Nations Population Division, Abortion Policies: A Global Review, 2002, United Nations (New York, NY), on line at United Nations [http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/abt/fabt.htm].

Alan Guttmacher Institute, "State Policies in Brief," 2005, Alan Guttmacher Institute, on line [http://www.guttmacher.org/statecenter/spibs/index.html].

Torres, Aida, and Jacqueline Darroch Forrest, "Why Do Women Have Abortions?", July/Aug. 1988, Family Planning Perspectives (20:4:169-176).

Bankole, Akinrinola, Sushella Singh, and Taylor Hass, "Reasons Why Women Have Induced Abortions: Evidence from 27 Countries," Aug. 1998, International Family Planning Perspectives (24:3:117-127,152), on line [http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/2411798.html].

Based on 1,559,100 abortions in 1987, from Henshaw, Stanley K., "Abortion Incidence and Services in the United States, 1995-1996," Nov./Dec. 1998, Family Planning Perspectives (30:6), on line at AGI [http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3026398.html].

Federal Bureau of Investigation (Uniform Crime Reports), "Crime Statistics," 2001-2005, Federal Bureau of Investigation, on line [http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm].

Willke, J. C., and Willke, "Why Can't We Love Them Both?", on line [http://www.abortionfacts.com/online_books/love_them_both/]; Hilger, Thomas W., cited in "Abortion: What About Rape & Incest?" at Lutherans for Life, on line [http://www.lutheransforlife.org/abortion/rape_or_incest.htm].

Jones, Rachel K., Jacqueline E. Darroch, and Stanley K. Henshaw, "Contraceptive Use Among Women Having Abortions in 2000-2001," Nov./Dec. 2002, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health (34:6), on line at AGI [http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3429402.html].

Davis, Devra Lee, Michelle B. Gottlieb, and Julie R. Stampnitzky, "Reduced Ratio of Male to Female Births in Several Industrial Countries: A Sentinel Health Indicator?", 1 April 1998, Journal of the American Medical Association (279:13:1018-1023) [abstract on line at http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/279/13/1018].

Centers for Disease Control, "Births: Final Data for 2000," 12 Feb. 2002, National Vital Statistics Reports (50:5), on line at CDC [http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr50/nvsr50_05.pdf].

Mathews, T. J., and Brady E. Hamilton, "Trend Analysis of the Sex Ratio at Birth in the United States," 14 Jun. 2005, National Vital Statistics Reports (53:20), on line at CDC [http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr53/nvsr53_20.pdf].

Based on 1,313,000 abortions in 2000, from Finer, Lawrence B., and Stanley K. Henshaw, "Abortion Incidence and Services in the United States in 2000," Jan./Feb. 2003, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health (35:1), on line at AGI [http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3500603.html].

Mrela, Christopher K., "Abortion Surveillance Report, Arizona, 1985-1995," 2001, Arizona Dept. of Health Services, on line [http://www.hs.state.az.us/plan/abortion/abortion.htm]; Batsche, Kurt, "Abortions by Reason for Termination and Year, Arizona, 1985-1995," Arizona Dept. of Health Services, on line [http://www.hs.state.az.us/plan/abortion/tables/abt9.htm]; "Abortions by Reason for Termination and Year, Arizona, 1993-2003," Arizona Dept. of Health Services, on line [http://www.hs.state.az.us/plan/abortion/].

Florida Department of Health, "Florida Vital Statistics Annual Report," annual reports, 1998-2003, 1999-2004, Florida Department of Health, on line [http://www.doh.state.fl.us/Planning_eval/vital_statistics/statistical_report.htm].

Louisiana State Center for Health Statistics, Louisiana Vital Statistics Report annual reports, 1996-2002, 1997-2003, on line [http://oph.dhh.state.la.us/recordsstatistics/statistics/page0cda.html].

Center for Health Statistics, Minnesota Dept. of Health, Report to the Legislature: Induced Abortions in Minnesota, annual report: October 1998-December 1999, Oct. 2000, MDH, on line [http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/chs/abrpt99.pdf]; January-December 2000, July 2001, MDH, on line [http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/chs/abrpt00.pdf]; January-December 2001, July 2002, MDH, on line [http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/chs/abrpt01.pdf]; January-December 2002, July 2003, MDH, on line [http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/chs/abrpt/abrpt02.pdf]; January-December 2003, July 2004, MDH, on line [http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/chs/abrpt/2003abrpt.pdf]; January-December 2004, July 2005, MDH, on line [http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/chs/abrpt/2004abrpt.pdf].

Nebraska Health and Human Services System, "Nebraska 2001 Statistical Report of Abortions," March 2002, Nebraska Health and Human Services System, on line [http://www.hhs.state.ne.us/ced/ABORTION2001RPT.pdf]; "Nebraska 2002 Statistical Report of Abortion," 2003, Nebraska Health and Human Services System, on line [http://www.hhs.state.ne.us/srd/2002Abortion.pdf]; "Nebraska 2003 Statistical Report of Abortion," 22 March 2004, Nebraska Health and Human Services System, on line [http://www.hhs.state.ne.us/srd/2003Abortion.pdf]; "Nebraska 2004 Statistical Report of Abortion," 6 April 2005, Nebraska Health and Human Services System, on line [http://www.hhs.state.ne.us/srd/abortion-report2004.pdf].

South Dakota Department of Health, "Induced Abortion," Nov. 2004, in 2003 South Dakota Vital Statistics Report: A State and County Comparison of Leading Health Indicators, on line at South Dakota Department of Health [http://www.state.sd.us/doh/Stats/10-InducedAbortion.pdf].

Utah Department of Health, Utah's Vital Statistics: Abortions, annual reports, 1996-2003, Utah Department of Health, on line [http://health.utah.gov/vitalrecords/stats/statistics.htm].

Finer, Lawrence B., and Stanley K. Henshaw, "Estimates of U.S. Abortion Incidence in 2001 and 2002," 18 May 2005, AGI, on line [http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/2005/05/18/ab_incidence.pdf].

Based on compiled figures by Johnston, "Abortion Statistics," 2005, Johnston's Archive, on line [http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/abortion/]; figures are compiled from CDC's MMWR and NVSR and respective state health departments.

Finer, Lawrence B., Lori F. Frohwirth, Lindsay A. Dauphinee, Susheela Singh, and Ann M. Moore, "Reasons U.S. Women Have Abortions: Quantitative and Qualitative Perspectives," Sept. 2005, Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 37(3):110-118, on line at AGI [http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3711005.pdf].

Boonstra, Heather, "Emergency Contraception: Steps Being Taken to Improve Access," Dec. 2002, The Guttmacher Report on Public Policy, 5(5):10-13, on line at AGI [http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/tgr/05/5/gr050510.pdf].

AGI, "Induced Abortion in the United States," April 2005, AGI, on line [http://www.agi-usa.org/pubs/fb_induced_abortion.pdf].

Holmes, M. M., H. S. Resnick, D. G. Kilpatrick, and C. L. Best, "Rape-related pregnancy: estimates and descriptive characteristics from a national sample of women," Aug. 1996, American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 175(2):320-324.

Stewart, Felicia H., and James Trussell, "Prevention of pregnancy resulting from rape: A neglected preventive health measure," Nov. 2000, American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 19(4):228-229.

© 2003, 2005 by Wm. Robert Johnston.
Last modified 1 October 2005.
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rape	0.3 % (0.2-0.6 %)
incest	0.03 % (<0.1 %)
physical life of mother	0.2 % (0.1-0.3 %)
physical health of mother	1.0 % (0.1-3 %)
fetal health	0.5 % (0.1-1.0 %)
mental health of mother	depends on definition
"personal choice" --too young/immature/not ready for responsibility --economic --to avoid adjusting life --mother single or in poor relationship --enough children already	98% (78-99 %) --(32 %) --25% (21-28 %) --(16 %) --(12-13 %) --(4-8 %)